How to hedge a bet

Hedging means betting against your own bet so you get paid no matter which side wins. You give up some of the upside to remove the chance of losing.

Two ways to size a hedge

Say you bet $100 at +300 and the other side is now −200.

Equal profit. Bet enough on the other side that both results pay the same.

Hedge at −200$266.67

If your bet wins+$33.33

If the hedge wins+$33.33

Break-even. Bet just enough to get your stake back if your bet loses, and keep the rest of the upside.

Hedge at −200$200.00

If your bet wins+$100.00

If the hedge wins+$0.00

Anything between those two amounts is a partial hedge. Less hedge means more upside and less protection.

Equal profit hedge = stake × your decimal odds ÷ hedge decimal odds
Break-even hedge = stake ÷ (hedge decimal odds − 1)

A futures example

Before the season you bet $50 on a team at +1000. They make the final. Now they’re +130 and the other team is −150.

No hedge, your team wins+$500.00

No hedge, they lose−$50.00

Equal hedge: $330.00 at −150+$170.00 either way

Break-even hedge: $75.00+$425.00 or $0.00

What a hedge costs

This is the part most hedging advice leaves out. The hedge is a bet like any other, so you pay the book’s margin on it. This final has a 3.36% hold. Strip that out and your team’s fair chance is about 42%.

At that chance, not hedging is worth about $181.09 on average. The equal hedge locks in $170.00. The difference, about $11.09, is what you pay to remove the risk.

That can be a good trade. Turning a 42% shot at +$500.00 into a sure $170.00 is worth $11.09 to most people. Hedging every small bet by habit isn’t. It just pays vig over and over.

Hedging the last leg of a parlay

This is the hedge people ask about most. You bet $20 on a four-leg parlay at +1200. Three legs hit. The parlay now pays $260.00 if the last leg wins, and the other side of that leg is −110.

Hedge the other side at −110$136.19

If the last leg wins+$103.81

If the hedge wins+$103.81

You give up the chance at +$240.00 for a sure +$103.81. The same cost rule applies: the hedge pays the vig on $136.19. Whether that’s worth it depends on how much the $260.00 matters to you. Some books offer a cash out instead. Run the hedge numbers first, because a cash out is usually priced worse.

Hedging live

In-game prices move every few seconds and usually carry more vig than pregame lines. If you know you’ll want to hedge, it often pays to place it before the game starts, or at a break in play when prices settle.

When hedging makes sense

The swing is big compared to your bankroll, like a futures bet that reached the final.
You can get a good price on the hedge. Compare books, because the hedge price decides how much you lock in.
You’re turning a promo into cash, like a bonus bet or a profit boost. There the hedge is how you collect the value.

Open the Hedge calculator

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